Can Hezbollah be persuaded to peacefully disarm?

Will Hezbollah agree to peacefully disarm through dialogue is the main question everyone is asking in Lebanon. President Joseph Aoun last week reaffirmed his desire to disarm Hezbollah this year. Understandably, his preferred option is to go through this process via a national dialogue.

This situation cannot be isolated from the broader shifts in the region. The bigger dialogue is now taking place between Iran and the US. This places the next steps for the Lebanese state in a quandary. There is no doubt that the final decision on Hezbollah’s disarmament will be taken in Tehran, as the group is an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps tool of terror. This was confirmed when the Iranian ambassador to Lebanon took to X last week to describe the planned disarmament, among other criticisms, as “a clear conspiracy against nations.”

It is a positive step that the Iranian ambassador was reportedly summoned over his remarks, as they represented a blatant interference in state affairs. Yet, what is Hezbollah today besides an interference tool in Lebanon?

It is a good sign of the will of the Lebanese state that it is striving for its sovereignty. This would not have been possible only a year ago. The reality is that Hezbollah has been reduced to rubble by Israel’s military campaign. And with the political change in Syria, the Iranian proxy has lost the logistics support from Iran that was essential to its operations. This is a huge difference that has helped the Lebanese state to enhance its sovereign voice. But this does not mean Hezbollah no longer has the capacity and power to destroy Lebanon or target its opponents in the country.

If the regime in Tehran were to push Hezbollah into a confrontation, it would have a single outcome: Hezbollah’s defeat and Tehran’s humiliation. Tehran knows it, Hezbollah knows it. And the Iranian ambassador’s posts on X underline this weakness. Simply because, in the past, the Lebanese president would have been summoned by a low-level intelligence officer to keep quiet about disarmament. Regardless, the Iranian regime has an opportunity to allow not only Lebanon to flourish, but also its own country and the region. Hezbollah’s disarmament should be an important point in the dialogue with the US over the Iranian nuclear file, as it is a similar tool.

It is a good sign of the will of the Lebanese state that it is striving for its sovereignty. This would not have been possible only a year ago

Khaled Abou Zahr

But I would call on the people of Lebanon to show stronger support for this disarmament. It is important to show that, beyond any regional agreement, it is the will of the people that the state has a monopoly on weapons. Aoun is remaining cautious in his approach as he understands very well that Hezbollah remains a military power that can be dangerous for the future of Lebanon. This is why there needs to be popular support for this historical transformation.

Hezbollah’s disarmament could be the starting point for a new Lebanon. The starting point for a real and sustainable reconstruction. The starting point of a Lebanese renaissance. It offers a historic opportunity that cannot and should not be missed. This is why the Lebanese need to rally and push for this transformation, regardless of the outcome of the broader regional dialogues.

In this context, it is also important to build solid trust with the Shiite community and repeat until we lose our voices that Hezbollah should not represent them. Just as any armed militia never protected any community. The people must find ways to engage and convey this solidarity among all Lebanese communities. This would also offer much-needed support for the president’s initiative. Any popular support should convey that disarming Hezbollah is not an action against the Shiite community, but salvation for all Lebanese. We also need hope and wishful thinking.

It is important to convey that, just as it was proven that Hezbollah is an artificial power annihilated by Israel in a split second, it is also an artificial protector, just like the regime in Tehran. Not a single community in Lebanon should need protection from a foreign power — protection should be guaranteed. Rights and duties should be the same for all. I also believe, and I indeed keep losing my voice on this, that federalism is the best way forward. But for now, we need greater trust among communities and this should also be reflected within social media exchanges. Paid voices should be silenced on both sides.

Aoun understands very well that Hezbollah remains a military power that can be dangerous for the future of Lebanon

Khaled Abou Zahr

The solution proposed for Hezbollah members is to join the Lebanese army, but not as a separate unit. This would only take place after a peaceful agreement to disarm, which is not yet guaranteed. But if this were to happen, there would have to be a serious vetting process and those who are ideologically loyal to the regime in Tehran or who have committed terror crimes should be excluded from joining the Lebanese army. After all its actions, Hezbollah also should not be allowed to participate in any elections. Loyalty should be exclusive to Lebanon and the Lebanese Armed Forces. I believe Lebanon can learn from other countries that have gone through the same process.

A change in how Tehran deals with Lebanon and its neighbors will also be crucial. Respecting a pledge of noninterference, abandoning any foreign military disruption and opting exclusively for state-to-state collaboration would be the silver bullet. This is what the US administration should aim for in its dialogue. Putting an end to the offensive activities of the Iranian regime is as important as the nuclear issue, if not more so. This would align with the aspirations of the region and the Lebanese people, for once converging regional goals with domestic ones.

• Khaled Abou Zahr is the founder of SpaceQuest Ventures, a space-focused investment platform. He is CEO of EurabiaMedia and editor of Al-Watan Al-Arabi.