Iraq and the effort to control armed groups

At the Sulaymaniyah International Forum last week, National Wisdom Movement leader Ammar Al-Hakim addressed the issue of weapons in Iraq. He emphasized that “military power undoubtedly resides with the state and the possession of arms should be exclusively in its hands. This is a matter that is beyond dispute and requires no further discussion.”

Al-Hakim, who is part of the Coordination Framework alliance that has strong ties to the Iranian government, understands that the issue of consolidating weapons solely in the hands of the Iraqi state is not a straightforward task. It involves navigating complex political, security and legal challenges that may require considerable time to resolve.

However, the longer the process of centralizing arms within the Iraqi government is delayed, the weaker the authority of the central state becomes, leading to an increase in the influence of armed factions. This situation also heightens the likelihood of security disturbances or confrontations among various militias.

Additionally, there is a genuine risk of Iraq facing military strikes from Israel, particularly due to the past involvement of some of these factions in the support war in solidarity with Hamas and Hezbollah following the Al-Aqsa Flood operation on Oct. 7, 2023, before the Iraqi armed factions ceased their military activities.

Iraqi factions, which have launched a series of drones and missiles targeting Israel at various times since the Oct. 7 attack, are now facing significant pressure from Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani. The PM has received credible messages and information indicating that Israel plans to target camps and facilities within Iraq in retaliation for military actions that Tel Aviv deems “hostile.” Meanwhile, the Iraqi “resistance” views these actions as part of its “religious and moral duty to support Palestine.”

The issue of consolidating weapons solely in the hands of the Iraqi state is not a straightforward task

Hassan Al-Mustafa

Al-Sudani took a firm stance and sought cooperation with other Iraqi leaders, particularly within the Coordination Framework, to urge groups such as the Hezbollah Brigades and Harakat Hezbollah Al-Nujaba to cease their operations. This is especially crucial as any Israeli strike could impose significant burdens on Iraq and potentially lead to an undesirable escalation of conflict in the Middle East.

Iraqi sources that I spoke with indicated that Al-Sudani, along with Al-Hakim and figures such as Asa’ib Ahl Al-Haq leader Qais Al-Khazali and Badr Organization Secretary-General Hadi Al-Amiri, among other religious, political and security personalities, have worked toward calming tensions and preventing any imminent US or Israeli strikes on Iraq.

The concern regarding potential retaliatory military actions by Israel is not what prompted the Iraqi factions to halt their support for the Palestinians. Rather, it is their awareness of the extensive destruction inflicted upon the Gaza Strip, southern Lebanon and the southern suburbs of Beirut, along with the significant material losses in terms of buildings and the tragic loss of innocent civilian lives.

Iraqis have also observed that the theory of “unity of the arenas” did not yield the intended results. The two main allies, Hamas and Hezbollah, suffered significant losses and lost key leaders such as Yahya Sinwar, Ismail Haniyeh, Hassan Nasrallah and Hashem Safieddine, along with numerous high-ranking security officials. This was attributed to Israel’s superior intelligence capabilities, its devastating missile power and the support that Tel Aviv received from Washington.

There is also a socio-religious factor that has stopped the ball of fire in Iraq. This factor is linked to the sectarian rhetoric that has proliferated in the Middle East. Various factions found themselves confronted with a torrent of anti-Shiite discourse, prompting their leaders and a significant portion of their supporters to question: why should we fight on behalf of those who insult us?

The significant and pivotal changes observed in Palestine, Lebanon and Syria, along with the diminishing influence of the so-called Axis of Resistance, have served as a wake-up call for these factions, which fundamentally adhere to a religious ideological perspective. This situation has instilled a fear of losing the gains they have accumulated over the years. Consequently, they have opted, at least tactically, to weather the storm by suspending armed activities.

The first step would be to integrate factions outside the Popular Mobilization Units into the umbrella group

Hassan Al-Mustafa

It was reported this month that a group of senior leaders and officials in Iraq had confirmed that several Iran-backed armed groups were preparing to disarm in order to prevent tensions with the Trump administration from escalating. This claim was denied by the Hezbollah Brigades.

People I contacted who were familiar with the situation confirmed that there have indeed been serious discussions with the factions about the need to restrict the possession of weapons to the state alone. They indicated that the first step would be to integrate factions outside the Popular Mobilization Units into the umbrella group, while simultaneously restricting political and military decision-making to the state. They also said that the PMU would not conduct any operations outside the political will of the Iraqi government, with future organizational steps to follow.

These steps are being carried out away from media and public discussion, as there is a desire for them to be successful. This is particularly important given the great sensitivity among armed militias regarding public discourse about their weapons.

In his address at the Sulaymaniyah International Forum, Al-Hakim highlighted a significant issue concerning the arms of various factions. He stated: “We are engaging in a measured and systematic approach to address, adapt and coordinate matters with state institutions.” He underscored that “solutions are not achieved through defeat, particularly as we strive for stability in our nation,” and noted that “we have made considerable progress in this regard.”

These efforts to consolidate weaponry under the control of the state will contribute to the stability of Iraq. They will receive support from the Gulf nations and Baghdad will find that the capitals of moderate Arab countries are among the foremost advocates for this significant transformation. The aim is to achieve this without plunging Iraq into chaos or experiencing any violent confrontations between the government and various factions.

• Hassan Al-Mustafa is a Saudi writer and researcher interested in Islamic movements, the development of religious discourse and the relationship between the Gulf Cooperation Council states and Iran. X: @Halmustafa