Sudan war is a global crisis in the making

With Sudan now in its third year of civil war, the country teeters on the edge of fragmentation and the scale of devastation is becoming nearly unimaginable. Sudan has now become a landscape of destruction, suffering and displacement due to the ongoing power struggle between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces.

Beyond the borders of Sudan, this war now presents a dire threat to regional and international stability. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres last week sounded the alarm, warning of the dangerous flows of weapons and fighters into the country and calling for an immediate end to external interference. If this conflict is not brought to a halt, its consequences will extend far beyond Sudan’s borders, endangering the Horn of Africa and beyond.

The humanitarian crisis in Sudan is one of the worst in the world today. With more than 13 million people displaced from their homes, it has become the largest internal displacement crisis on the planet. And more than 3 million Sudanese have been forced to flee across borders, seeking refuge in already-vulnerable neighboring states such as Chad, South Sudan and Ethiopia.

The UN reports that more than 25 million people — over half the population — need urgent humanitarian assistance. In several regions, starvation looms as a real and immediate threat, with nearly 600,000 people facing catastrophic levels of hunger. The deliberate targeting of civilians has only intensified the crisis. This is a deliberate strategy of violence against noncombatants that is aimed at controlling territory through fear, brutality and ethnic targeting. The international community cannot afford to ignore the scale of human suffering unfolding in Sudan.

Equally devastating is the destruction of Sudan’s physical and institutional infrastructure. The capital city, Khartoum, which once bustled with markets, government offices, schools and hospitals, has been reduced to ruins. Following its recent recapture by the Sudanese Armed Forces, UN officials who visited the city described scenes of unimaginable devastation. “(There is) massive destruction of infrastructure, no access to water, no electricity and, of course, a lot of contamination of unexploded ordnance,” said Luca Renda, the UN Development Programme representative in Sudan.

The total collapse of state infrastructure has created an environment where governance is impossible

Dr. Majid Rafizadeh

Roads have been bombed into rubble. Water stations have been deliberately destroyed. Schools stand abandoned, their walls scarred with bullet holes and their courtyards littered with debris. In many neighborhoods, residents are forced to rely on untreated surface water, increasing the risk of disease outbreaks. The total collapse of state infrastructure has created an environment where governance is impossible and human life has become nearly unsustainable.

The consequences of this war are not confined to Sudan. The conflict is rapidly becoming a regional crisis that has the potential to destabilize large swaths of Africa and even disrupt international trade. Sudan’s strategic location, bordering seven countries and the Red Sea, makes its stability crucial to the security of the region. Already, the war has placed enormous pressure on neighboring states, most of which are struggling with their own political and economic challenges. Refugee flows have overwhelmed border towns. Arms smuggling and the movement of fighters across porous borders are destabilizing communities in Chad and the Central African Republic.

In such a vacuum, extremist groups such as Al-Qaeda and Daesh affiliates could find fertile ground to regroup and expand. This is not only a threat to Sudan’s neighbors — it poses risks to international security, migration patterns and maritime stability in the Red Sea.

Central to the prolongation of the war is the flow of weapons and foreign interference. Despite international calls for restraint, weapons and money continue to pour into Sudan. This external support has significantly altered the balance of power in the conflict and has emboldened actors to pursue military solutions instead of political dialogue.

The influx of weapons has also had a devastating impact on civilians, enabling large-scale massacres and fueling the ethnic and tribal dimensions of the war. Moreover, the proliferation of arms raises the risk that Sudan’s war could ignite other regional conflicts. In a region already awash with militias and fragile states, the unchecked flow of weapons acts like gasoline on a fire.

The international community must do more than simply condemn the violence. It must act in a coordinated and sustained manner to stop it. The UN, while playing a vital role in documenting abuses and providing humanitarian aid, must move more decisively on the political front. It should work closely with the African Union, whose regional presence and legitimacy make it a critical partner in peacebuilding efforts.

The African Union has already warned of the dangers of Sudan’s potential partition and has called for urgent dialogue between the warring factions. Building on this, the UN and African Union must establish a joint mechanism for facilitating negotiations and monitoring ceasefires.

This is not merely a concern for Sudan, it is also a danger to Africa, the Middle East and the wider world

Dr. Majid Rafizadeh

One promising avenue is the Jeddah Declaration — a framework agreed upon in Saudi Arabia by both warring factions in 2023, outlining commitments to protect civilians and facilitate humanitarian access. While the declaration has not been fully implemented, it remains one of the few available diplomatic tools that has the backing of both sides and international partners. Revitalizing this agreement, with strong international pressure and incentives for compliance, could offer a path toward de-escalation and eventual peace.

In the absence of a functioning central government, Sudan is at risk of becoming a failed state and a breeding ground for new militias, warlords and terrorist groups. This is not merely a concern for Sudanese citizens, whose suffering is already extreme, it is also a danger to Africa, the Middle East and the wider world. Failed states do not contain their crises, they export them — through armed movements, refugee flows, pandemics and economic collapse.

The longer the Sudan conflict continues, the more entrenched these threats will become. The emergence of war economies and criminal networks will make disarmament and reconstruction exponentially harder. Moreover, if Sudan breaks into multiple territories controlled by rival governments or militias, restoring national unity could take generations.

In conclusion, the war in Sudan is not simply a Sudanese problem, it is a global crisis in the making. The human toll is staggering, the country’s infrastructure is in ruins and the region is on the verge of collapse. The continued flow of weapons, the involvement of foreign powers and the complete breakdown of the state all point toward a future of unending violence and instability — unless immediate and coordinated action is taken.

The international community must recognize that stopping the conflict is not a matter of charity, but of global security. Working through the UN, the African Union and platforms like the Jeddah Declaration, world leaders must demand a ceasefire, halt the weapons trade and bring the parties to the negotiating table. If the war is not stopped now, it will grow, feeding more militias, creating more failed zones and threatening the peace not just of Sudan but of the entire region and beyond.

• Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian American political scientist. X: @Dr_Rafizadeh