Wearing Al-Sharaa out or breaking Syria apart?

Benjamin Netanyahu is leading the region to the abyss. He is driving it into tunnels that will leave us in endless conflict if his project succeeds. Netanyahu is trying to capitalize on the blows his army has delivered in recent wars, with the aim of imposing new facts on the ground in neighboring countries. He dreams of an Israel surrounded by weak or fragmented states busy fighting domestic conflicts, allowing him to focus on moving forward with his displacement plans.

He acts as though Israel has the right to violate the airspace of neighboring countries and bombard any “threats” that currently exist or could arise in the future. He sees the world as a jungle in which the strong are entitled to impose their own laws and erase others’ rights.

The recent Israeli attacks on the Syrian Arab Republic are more dangerous than anything that has come before. It is by no means a trivial matter for Israel to point to the protection of a Syrian community to justify violations of Syria’s airspace and territory. Israel is really hoping to push Syria into a war among different communities, setting the country on a path toward perpetual disintegration. If Syria were to break apart, it would be a tragedy not only for Syria but also for its neighbors. This is a project whose fires cut across borders.

Lebanon has every right to be concerned by this climate. The same goes for Iraq and Jordan, and even for Turkiye. In recent days, President Ahmad Al-Sharaa seems to have been surrounded by wounds and minefields, following the events on the coast and in light of the Druze and Kurdish demands.

Netanyahu sees the world as a jungle in which the strong are entitled to impose their own laws and erase others’ rights

Ghassan Charbel

An old politician well versed in Syrian affairs and its relations with its neighbors surprised me recently. “The goal is bigger than an attempt to destabilize Ahmad Al-Sharaa’s hold on power,” he said. “These attacks are meant to destabilize Syria itself. We will probably never see the Syria we used to know again. We must not underestimate Netanyahu’s rhetoric about reshaping the Middle East, especially the countries around Israel. Netanyahu’s behavior suggests that his real project is to dismantle Syria, and Trump has clearly given him free rein, merely asking him not to clash with Turkiye.”

The politician went on to warn me about what he considered a dangerous international development. He said that the Trump administration acquiescing to Vladimir Putin’s victory (not only in Crimea but also over it holding a fifth of Ukraine’s territory) amounts to a stark acknowledgment of the collapse of respect for states’ territorial inviolability and an explicit recognition of states’ right to use overwhelming force to redraw national borders.

Europe is not the only one that is concerned. Netanyahu, who refuses to set final borders for his country, would be among the first to benefit from the fall of states' territorial inviolability. Israel has coveted its neighbors for a long time and it could now benefit from the repercussions of the conflict in Ukraine. While Russia is changing Ukraine’s map based on historical claims and security concerns linked to NATO, Israel constantly uses security fears as a pretext to establish “security belts” inside its neighbors’ territories.

The politician added that Netanyahu did not stop at punishing Bashar Assad for backing Iran’s ambitions and the “Axis of Resistance.” The Israeli prime minister went further, developing a plan to wear down Syria as a whole and to inflict permanent damage that would ensure the country shatters amid communal antagonism. Netanyahu does not merely want to prevent the rise of a strong government in Damascus, he wants to lay the groundwork for a weak Syria that is constantly busy dealing with its own wounds and landmines.

The politician then raised a series of questions. Can the Arab public, for example, accept the idea that we have just suffered an emphatic defeat far more dangerous than that of 1967, when the Israeli army broke the back of Arab armies? Is it tolerable to say that, on the eve of the Al-Aqsa Flood Operation, the situation in Gaza, despite the Israeli blockade, was much better than it is now, when its people and infrastructure have been devastated? Did we need a new experiment to affirm the brutality of the Israeli entity and its lethal capacity? Is it fair, for example, for an observer to ask why Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar did not carry out an operation to kidnap an Israeli soldier or three, to exchange them for Palestinian prisoners, since he had personally undergone this experience? Why did Sinwar launch a major operation that Israel could only respond to with a large-scale war? Was the “flood” ultimately part of a broader attack in which Iran’s allies, across several maps, shared roles? And is this the reason that Lebanon’s Hezbollah and the Houthis entered the fray?

Israel has coveted its neighbors for a long time and it could now benefit from the repercussions of the conflict in Ukraine

Ghassan Charbel

The politician also went on to note that, under both Assads, Syria always signaled that threats came from outside its borders. It consistently refused to openly address domestic issues, especially concerns regarding the rights of its various communities and intercommunal ties. The previous regime saw any movement demanding rights as a plot orchestrated by foreign powers, presenting these movements as a conspiracy that deserved severe punishment.

Thus, addressing such matters was effectively delegated to the intelligence services, which aggravated problems instead of solving them. Would the Kurdish issue have turned into a major problem under Al-Sharaa if Hafez Assad, and later his son Bashar, had treated the Kurds as equal citizens? Would the recent cruel developments on the coast have unfolded if not for the wounds and actions of the past and if Syria’s mosaic of communities had come together under the umbrella of state institutions? Would Israel have been able to exploit the concerns of Syria’s Druze if Syria were a country of laws?

Many actors now stand at a dangerous crossroads. This applies to Gaza and the entire Palestinian cause. It also applies to Lebanon, should the country fail to embark on a journey that leads to it again being a normal state whose government makes decisions of war and peace. It applies even more to Syria, which seems to be in Israel’s sights once again.

The Israeli assaults go beyond merely wearing Al-Sharaa down or blackmailing him. The aim is to break Syria’s back for decades. At present, Al-Sharaa enjoys Arab backing and Turkish support. He has sent multiple signals that he has no intention of entering a conflict with Israel. However, standing up to Netanyahu’s project requires a firm decision from Trump. This decision will inevitably come at a cost to Al-Sharaa’s Syria — and it will not be meager.

• Ghassan Charbel is editor-in-chief of Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper. X: @GhasanCharbel

This article first appeared in Asharq Al-Awsat.