The UK’s two-party system is creaking

Were the local elections held in England last Thursday another seminal moment in British politics? The barnstorming success of the far-right populist Reform UK party, which gained 677 council seats, threatens to shatter the two-party system that has dominated the country’s politics for more than a century.

Both the governing Labour Party and the opposition Conservative Party had a bruising night. Neither of these two establishment behemoths appealed to voters, meaning seismic challenges to their parties and leaderships. Of course, it is not just in Britain that traditional parties have suffered in recent years. Where are the French Republicans and the Socialist Party? And in the US, the traditional Republican Party has effectively collapsed and been taken over by Donald Trump’s “Make America Great Again” movement.

Anti-establishment parties are on the rise, to the left and the right, across Europe. About a third of Europeans now vote for nontraditional parties. Party allegiance is waning and voter trends are more changeable. It suggests widespread dissatisfaction at a time of economic crisis and identity politics. So, what is happening in Britain is far from unique.

The question on many people’s minds is whether this can supercharge Nigel Farage’s journey to Downing Street. Might the Reform leader become prime minister? This is now a valid question. He has the political talent and is one of the most effective political communicators in the country. He is a brand, is recognizable and is an ever-present in the media. Opportunism is his forte and there is no bandwagon he will not jump on if it assists his ascent to power.

Neither of the establishment behemoths appealed to voters, meaning seismic challenges to their parties and leaderships

Chris Doyle

Reform has turned psephological predictions into voting reality. Since the Labour government under Keir Starmer came to power last summer, opinion polls have shown Reform rising fast. Last week’s elections were the first time this could be transmitted into actual political gains, including a fifth member of Parliament thanks to a by-election in which a large Labour majority was overturned.

It would be unwise for Labour and the Tories to see this as just a protest vote. The disaffection seems to run deeper than that, to the extent that more and more voters are prepared to trust Reform with their vote.

But a general election is not likely until 2029. Much will change between now and then. Labour may recover from the tough financial decisions it has made so far, including the imposition of unpopular taxes. The Tories may ditch ineffective new leader Kemi Badenoch, but for who? Some speculate a return for Boris Johnson, the only politician on the right who can compete for airtime with Farage and go head-to-head with him.

Reform has its own weaknesses. It is almost totally dependent on Farage. Without him, it collapses, rather like MAGA might without Trump. Beneath Farage, there are also some extremely unappealing characters with views their leader would not like aired. Reform is also riven with personality disputes. And as a new party it has little experience of actual government, so, as it starts taking control of local councils, Reform’s performance will be closely assessed.

Reform’s policies are yet to undergo the sort of forensic analysis that a general election would bring. Voters want the economy to be put back on the right track, but what does Reform offer here? An anti-immigration stance is in its DNA, but does it have the solutions? Will people be put off by its Islamophobic approach and what many see as thinly disguised racism in terms of attitudes to immigrants?

It would be unwise for Labour and the Tories to see this as just a protest vote. The disaffection seems to run deeper than that

Chris Doyle

To what extent has Trumpism affected matters? It has boosted populist forces across Europe and elsewhere. The MAGA movement has inspired many. Its followers like to see themselves as insurgent.

Yet, against that, Trump is also a liability. His tariff policies are barely welcomed anywhere outside the US. Trump’s closeness to Russian President Vladimir Putin is also an issue for the likes of Farage, who is conscious that he does not wish to be cast as Moscow’s puppet.

Being prepared to stand up to Trump seems to offer an electoral advantage in certain countries. The Liberal Party was down and out in Canada, but Trump’s attacks allowed Mark Carney to claim an unlikely victory. In Australia, Anthony Albanese has won a landslide second term against an opponent billed as Australia’s Trump.

Labour and the Conservatives have three years to turn things around and regain the trust of voters. This will be far from easy. Labour can appeal to the left and center of British politics, which will shy away from Reform, as well as ethnic minorities, who will be scared. The Conservatives face the familiar choice of whether to embrace Reform — perhaps even merging with it to create a single right-wing political bloc — or to find a way to differentiate itself more clearly from its rival. Do not be surprised if Badenoch has a short lifespan as leader.

Either way, British politics is in for a bumpy ride. What the electorate craves is a competent government with a realistic plan. The mistake would be for other parties to mimic Reform as the way forward. This was “a plague on all your houses” vote. The solution for the mainstream parties is to up their game or face oblivion.

• Chris Doyle is director of the Council for Arab-British Understanding in London. X: @Doylech