The Rohingya crisis and Bangladesh’s breaking point

The Rohingya refugee crisis in Bangladesh, one of the world’s most protracted humanitarian disasters, is teetering on the edge of catastrophe. The UN’s International Organization for Migration, alongside partners, last month appealed for $934.5 million to provide lifesaving aid to 1.5 million people, including nearly 1 million Rohingya refugees and their host communities in Cox’s Bazar and Bhasan Char. This funding is critical to sustain food, shelter, healthcare and protection for a population entirely dependent on humanitarian assistance.

However, the likelihood of securing these funds is dwindling, leaving Bangladesh — a nation already stretched thin — to shoulder an unsustainable burden. Compounding this crisis, colder-than-expected temperatures in the camps are projected to drive a surge in gastroenteritis, escalating medical costs and threatening lives. Without urgent global action, this situation risks spiraling into a disaster of unimaginable scale.

For the last eight years, Bangladesh has hosted more than 1 million Rohingya who fled genocidal violence in Myanmar. The sprawling camps in Cox’s Bazar, among the largest and most overcrowded in the world, are a testament to Bangladesh’s generosity. But this generosity comes at a steep cost. The Rohingya, stateless and barred from working, rely entirely on aid for survival.

The 2025-26 Joint Response Plan, launched by the International Organization for Migration and the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, aims to address these needs while supporting 390,000 vulnerable Bangladeshis in host communities. But global donor fatigue and competing crises — coupled with recent US aid cuts — make it improbable that the UN will raise the full amount. In 2024, the US provided more than $300 million, nearly half the humanitarian response budget for the Rohingya. With such a significant donor stepping back, the funding gap, already $115.6 million for food alone, is poised to widen.

Without urgent global action, this situation risks spiraling into a disaster of unimaginable scale

Dr. Azeem Ibrahim

The consequences of underfunding are already evident. The World Food Programme narrowly avoided halving food rations from $12.50 to $6 per month in early 2025 thanks to a last-minute $73 million US contribution. However, previous ration cuts in 2023, which reduced vouchers to $8, led to 90 percent of the camp population struggling to access adequate diets and 15 percent of children suffering from malnutrition — the highest rates recorded.

UNHCR chief Filippo Grandi has warned of a “direct correlation between aid and lives.” Without sustained funding, hunger will deepen, driving desperation, crime and dangerous boat journeys as refugees seek to escape. For Bangladesh, this means not only a humanitarian strain but also heightened security risks and social tensions with local communities.

Adding to this precarious situation is an environmental threat: colder temperatures in Cox’s Bazar. A recent study highlighted by Medical Xpress projects that lower-than-expected temperatures in the camps will increase the incidence of gastroenteritis, a leading cause of illness among refugees. Overcrowded conditions, poor sanitation and limited access to clean water already make the camps a breeding ground for disease. Cold weather exacerbates these risks by weakening immune systems and increasing the transmission of pathogens.

The study warns that gastroenteritis outbreaks could overwhelm the camps’ fragile healthcare infrastructure, driving up medical costs at a time when funding is scarce. Children, who make up a significant portion of the population, are particularly vulnerable. Malnutrition, already rampant, will worsen outcomes, potentially leading to higher mortality rates.

For Bangladesh, the implications are staggering. The government, alongside local communities, is essentially “running a city of over a million people in one of the most vulnerable areas in the world,” as Grandi noted. But international support is waning. The interim government, led by Mohammed Yunus, has sought to draw global attention, as seen during UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres’ visit in March. But pledges alone cannot bridge the gap.

Adding to this precarious situation is an environmental threat: colder temperatures in Cox’s Bazar

Dr. Azeem Ibrahim

Bangladesh lacks the resources to absorb the financial and logistical burden of sustaining the camps without robust international backing. Local communities, who have shared land, water and forests, are growing resentful as their own needs go unmet. The strain on infrastructure, from healthcare to sanitation, is pushing the system to breaking point.

The health crisis looming from gastroenteritis underscores the urgency. Treating widespread outbreaks will require additional medical supplies, staff and facilities — resources that are already stretched. The camps’ clinics, run by organizations like Doctors Without Borders, are bracing for a surge in cases. But without emergency funds, they may be unable to cope. Malnutrition and disease create a vicious cycle: weakened bodies are less able to fight infections and illness further depletes nutritional reserves. For a population with no access to jobs or self-sufficiency, the absence of aid means not just hardship but existential risk.

This crisis demands a global reckoning. The international community must recognize that the Rohingya crisis is not Bangladesh’s alone. Wealthy nations, particularly those that have scaled back aid, must recommit to funding the Joint Response Plan. Beyond immediate relief, investments in education, skills training and livelihoods could reduce dependency and give young Rohingya — a third of whom are aged 10 to 24 — hope for a future. Myanmar, too, must be held accountable for creating the conditions for safe repatriation, though peace in Rakhine State remains elusive. In the interim, Bangladesh needs tangible support, not just sympathy.

The Rohingya crisis is a test of global solidarity. If the world fails to act, the camps in Cox’s Bazar will become a graveyard of dashed hopes, with Bangladesh left to bear the consequences. Colder temperatures and rising diseases are not hypotheticals — they are imminent threats. The UN’s $934.5 million appeal is not a luxury, it is a lifeline. Without it, the Rohingya and their hosts face a disaster that is not just waiting to happen — it is already unfolding.

• Dr. Azeem Ibrahim is the director of special initiatives at the Newlines Institute for Strategy and Policy in Washington, DC. X: @AzeemIbrahim