Perfect storm brings UK and EU together

It is too early to predict the outcome of this month’s all-important EU-UK summit, but there has already been a sea change in terms of more cordial language and a spirit of cooperation between the two sides that has buried the toxicity of the dreadful Brexit years.

While the time that has elapsed since the UK left Europe has helped to heal some of the wounds, it is the decisive UK general election victory last year of the more pro-European Labour Party — combined with the dangerously chaotic new US administration’s far-reaching implications for European security, prosperity and values — that has hastened the London-Brussels rapprochement.

In the years since Brexit, the necessity for a new kind of UK-EU partnership has become obvious to both sides. This will not be one that opens old wounds by floating the prospect of Britain returning to the EU, or even to the single market, anytime soon, despite about 55 percent of British voters consistently expressing in opinion polls their support for rejoining the EU. Support for staying out is about 40 percent.

However, last week’s success for the anti-European and anti-immigration Reform UK party in the local elections, and its winning another seat in Parliament by way of a by-election, is a warning sign that Labour’s declared reset of relations with Brussels must remain incremental, target specific areas of cooperation and bear tangible fruit for people up and down the country before any conversation about readmission to the EU can take place.

The two sides are on the path to signing a formal declaration that commits to ‘free and open trade’

Yossi Mekelberg

According to a leaked draft agreement, the UK-EU interlocutors preparing for the forthcoming summit are on the path to signing a formal declaration that commits to “free and open trade.” In a snub to the Trump administration’s declared trade war, this is a clear sign of trying to avert, or at least mitigate, the looming recession that is the consequence of Washington’s protectionist policies.

If, until very recently, the drive for resetting relations with the EU was more about economics, securing borders from illegal immigration and scientific and cultural cooperation, the return of Donald Trump to the White House and the president’s recent spat with Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky has shifted the center of gravity to defense and security.

In the face of Russia’s expansionism and the sense that, at present, the US is no longer a reliable ally with regard to winning the war in Ukraine or in the bigger picture of the defense of Europe as a whole, the UK and the EU have already accelerated their defense cooperation measures and have immediately eased their fiscal restraints on military spending budgets. Germany and Poland are leading this approach, but France and the UK are not far behind.

The public show of support for Ukraine and for Zelensky personally by British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron, who convened a summit to respond to the new and threatening situation, was an important turning point in the continent’s determination to develop a common foreign and security strategy to match external threats.

Common interests derived from geography, history, enemies and shared values are almost self-evident, but it is also the conscious efforts to improve the general atmosphere between London and Brussels that is creating the conditions for close cooperation. Much of this is due to Britain’s current prime minister being the most Europe-friendly since Tony Blair and can be felt in the manner of his engagements with other European leaders.

For the slow-growing British economy, the issue of trade is crucial, even if under the pressing circumstances defense is topping the agenda in discussions with Europe. However, it is also a trickier issue in terms of the concessions Europe would expect it to make. In trade, figures rarely lie and, as a bloc, the EU is the UK’s largest trading partner, accounting for 41 percent of its exports and 51 percent of its imports. Meanwhile, for the EU, the UK is the second-largest trading partner, which makes the need to lay to rest any residue of bitterness and resentment that might still linger among EU officials over Brexit.

Conscious efforts to improve the general atmosphere are creating the conditions for close cooperation

Yossi Mekelberg

The circle that must be squared in the negotiations leading to this month’s summit is how to offset the damage Brexit has inflicted without being seen or suspected of toying with the idea of readmitting the UK to the EU by the back door, especially when it comes to freedom of movement. A major test for the UK’s reset readiness is bound to be agreeing to a “youth experience” program that would allow British and European 18 to 30-year-olds to travel and work freely for a limited time of one or two years.

For Europeans, freedom of movement is as much a symbol of what the EU is all about — in terms of constituting a single vibrant continent that shares similar values — as it is a tool of conflict prevention for liberal-democratic multilateralism. Agreeing to this is not reversing Brexit but reintroducing, on a limited scale, a scheme for young people to enjoy the benefits of working and traveling abroad with minimal barriers.

Should this scheme be approved, it would help create the good relations necessary to make progress on trade agreements. Considering that the UK is facing a blanket 10 percent US tariff while the EU faces 20 percent, an increase in trade between them has become more necessary and urgent.

But many other issues that were taken for granted when the UK was an EU member and were not agreed on in its “divorce” agreement also need to be reset. These include a veterinary services agreement to prevent unnecessary border checks and help tackle the cost of food; agreeing to the same agricultural standards; securing a mutual recognition agreement for professional qualifications to help open up markets for UK service exporters; and removing barriers that hinder traveling artists. Many of these issues were not contentious to begin with and hardly played a role in how people voted in the 2016 referendum and, with a new and more pro-European government in London, they can be resolved in the spirit of two allies.

The English Channel, or “La Manche” as the French call it, which physically separates the UK from mainland Europe, was until recently perceived to be much wider than its actual 34 km at its narrowest point. But now, 8,000 years after the British peninsula was separated from Europe, and following the more recent and nasty nationalist storm of Brexit, both sides are thankfully reaching agreement on the issues that matter for their common security and prosperity. The upcoming summit could be a crucial step in restoring long-term cooperation for the benefit of both.

• Yossi Mekelberg is a professor of international relations and an associate fellow of the MENA Program at Chatham House. X: @YMekelberg