The impact of Vision 2030 on Saudi Arabia’s foreign policy

According to Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 plan, announced by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in 2016, the initiative “aims to build a vibrant society and a thriving economy by fostering a supportive environment for growth, creating job opportunities for citizens, nurturing talent, attracting investment and unlocking the Kingdom’s vast potential.”

Consequently, Saudi Arabia has prioritized diversifying its sources of income. Despite its vast oil reserves, the Kingdom is seeking to reduce its reliance on a single revenue stream and shield its annual budgets from the volatility of global oil prices. This strategy is particularly important in light of the ambitious projects launched under Vision 2030, such as NEOM, Qiddiya, the Red Sea Project and Diriyah, which require substantial funding and the attraction of foreign investment. Achieving these objectives is unlikely as long as oil remains the primary source of national revenue.

The Kingdom’s Vision 2030 was designed to reshape traditional economic thinking by redefining “energy” as a comprehensive sector — not limited to oil but inclusive of gas, petroleum derivatives and renewable and clean energy sources. This broader approach gives the Kingdom greater flexibility to diversify its energy portfolio, allowing it to offer a wider range of products and expand its reach across regional and international markets.

This shift has accelerated the growth of the non-oil economy, driven by sweeping social and cultural changes, government reforms and legislative updates. As a result, Saudi Arabia has become increasingly accessible to tourists, business professionals and investors, while also emerging as a hub for major cultural, sporting and international events.

This dynamic progress is driven by a clear ambition to establish an “attractive, competitive and open business environment” as part of “building a leading global economy.” The strategy focuses on “empowering entrepreneurship, restructuring economic cities, developing special economic zones and unlocking the full potential of the energy sector to boost its international competitiveness.”

These goals — seen by some as unrealistic just nine years ago — have been realized under the leadership of the crown prince. Through his personal oversight, the government has been transformed into an effective institution marked by transparency and accountability. It is now distinguished by its agility in adapting to modern developments and emerging challenges, and by its efficient and effective management of financial resources, with a strong focus on swift execution and performance monitoring.

It is clear that the economy lies at the heart of the Kingdom’s Vision 2030. Achieving goals such as reducing unemployment, increasing gross domestic product, localizing military and technological industries, and making Saudi Arabia a prime destination for tourists and global enterprises depends on two fundamental pillars: security and balanced policies.

Saudi Arabia has made significant efforts to strengthen internal security by combating extremist rhetoric and dismantling terrorist groups. A key achievement has been the curbing of the influence of hardliners, leading to greater social freedoms and a decline in terrorist activity. These efforts have been supported by the vigilant oversight of the Presidency of State Security and a broader initiative to modernize religious discourse, led by the Ministry of Islamic Affairs, Dawah and Guidance, particularly by regulating Friday sermons to prevent the spread of extremist ideologies.

Vision 2030 is guiding the Kingdom toward building relationships founded on mutual respect, collaboration and common interests. 

Hassan Al-Mustafa

This governmental approach has played a key role in promoting the values of citizenship and equality and countering the sectarianism fueled by extremist ideologies.

While initially aimed at protecting the Saudi society and preserving internal stability, these policies have also shaped the Kingdom’s foreign policy, guiding it toward building relationships founded on mutual respect, collaboration and common interests.

Riyadh has sought to separate religion and sectarianism from political affairs. Even amid tensions with Iran, the Kingdom has emphasized its commitment to fostering “good and distinguished relations.” In an April 2021 television interview, the crown prince affirmed this stance, stating: “We do not want the situation with Iran to be difficult. On the contrary, we want it to prosper and grow as we have Saudi interests in Iran, and they have Iranian interests in Saudi Arabia, which is to drive prosperity and growth in the region and the entire world.”

The crown prince expressed a similar view regarding the Houthis in Yemen, stating: “There is no doubt that the Houthis maintain strong ties with the Iranian regime. However, they are, above all, Yemenis — rooted in Arab and Yemeni identity. I hope these ties will prevail, leading them to prioritize the interests of their country and people above all else.” These clear statements underscore that the conflict is political and security-related, not sectarian.

The security of the Arabian Gulf and the Red Sea maritime routes and the protection of Saudi Arabia’s borders from external threats, such as Houthi drone attacks and threats from other armed groups, have been the central drivers of Saudi foreign policy. Instead of adopting a reactive posture, the Kingdom has taken a proactive approach, prioritizing containment and diplomacy, as evidenced by its outreach to both Tehran and Sanaa.

Of course, this containment policy was not the result of chance, but of extensive behind-the-scenes efforts, backchannel communication and coordinated efforts between diplomatic and intelligence bodies. These efforts ultimately led to the signing of the Beijing Agreement with Iran and a notable de-escalation along Saudi Arabia’s southern border.

In parallel, Saudi Arabia has worked to address the political vacuum in Lebanon by supporting the election of both a president and a prime minister. It has also extended support to the new government in Syria, emphasizing that any political or security void could lead to instability — an outcome Riyadh is determined to avoid.

Regional security is essential to the success of the Kingdom’s Vision 2030, providing the stability necessary to realize its ambitions and drive economic growth. This is why Vision 2030 and Saudi diplomacy are deeply interconnected.

Riyadh’s opposition to Israel’s aggressive actions in the West Bank and Gaza, its condemnation of the war on Lebanon and attacks on Syria, as well as its support for US-Iran dialogue, rapprochement between Russia and the US, and the pursuit of a resolution to the war in Ukraine all reflect strategic positions embedded in Vision 2030. These are not short-term tactics but integral elements of a broader vision, one that sees foreign policy as inseparably linked to the modernization of the state’s governance, economy and society.

• Hassan Al-Mustafa is a Saudi writer and researcher interested in Islamic movements, the development of religious discourse and the relationship between the Gulf Cooperation Council states and Iran. X: @Halmustafa