Myanmar earthquake a double blow to the junta

On March 28, a 7.7-magnitude earthquake struck central Myanmar, leveling communities, killing more than 3,700 people and leaving tens of thousands homeless. The epicenter, near Mandalay, shook the nation’s heart, collapsing bridges, pagodas and homes and exposing the fragility of a country already fractured by a brutal civil war.

Beyond the physical devastation, this catastrophe has reshaped the psychological landscape of Myanmar’s conflict, delivering a profound boost to the resistance forces battling the junta. In a nation steeped in superstition, many rebels interpret the quake as divine retribution against the military government, fueling their morale and momentum in a war that has raged since the 2021 coup.

The civil war, pitting the junta against a coalition of ethnic armed groups and the People’s Defence Force under the national unity government, has been a grinding, multifront struggle. The earthquake has added a new dimension, straining the junta’s resources and exposing its vulnerabilities. Mandalay, a junta stronghold, suffered extensive damage, with more than 65,000 buildings affected, including critical infrastructure like hospitals and bridges.

The military, already stretched thin by resistance offensives, has been forced to divert troops and funds to relief efforts, weakening its grip on contested regions. In Sagaing, where the city remains under junta control but the countryside is dominated by resistance militias, the quake’s destruction has disrupted supply lines and communication networks, hampering military operations.

Many rebels interpret the quake as divine retribution against the military government, fueling their morale and momentum

Dr. Azeem Ibrahim

This logistical burden comes at a critical moment. The resistance has made significant gains since the launch of Operation 1027 by the Three Brotherhood Alliance in October 2023. The alliance, comprising the Arakan Army, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army, has seized key territories, including Lashio in Shan State. The earthquake’s timing has created openings for further advances.

As political analyst Kyaw Hsan Hlaing noted, the junta’s preoccupation with disaster response has allowed groups like the Arakan Army to consolidate control over towns like Falam in Chin State. The national unity government’s truce declaration, allowing only defensive operations until April 20, enabled resistance forces to exploit these gaps, while the junta’s continued airstrikes — more than 120 since the quake, according to the UN — have drawn international condemnation and further alienated civilians.

But the earthquake’s impact transcends material losses. In Myanmar, where Buddhist cosmology and superstition permeate daily life, natural disasters are often imbued with spiritual significance. For many in the resistance, the quake is seen as a divine verdict on the junta’s brutality.

Since the 2021 coup, the military has killed tens of thousands, displaced millions and razed civilian infrastructure, earning widespread hatred. The quake’s devastation of junta-controlled areas, particularly Mandalay’s cultural and religious sites, has been interpreted by some rebels as cosmic justice. Social media posts from resistance fighters, reported by local outlets, describe the earthquake as “the earth rejecting the generals’ tyranny” and a sign that “the heavens stand with the people.” This narrative resonates deeply in a country where omens and portents shape perceptions of legitimacy.

The psychological boost cannot be overstated. In a war where morale is as critical as ammunition, the belief that righteousness is on their side has galvanized resistance fighters. The junta’s legitimacy, already eroded by its violent suppression of protests and conscription drives, has taken another hit. Reports from displaced communities in Kayah State highlight a growing sense among civilians that the junta’s misfortunes signal its impending collapse.

This sentiment is amplified by the resistance’s narrative warfare, with sympathetic media outlets framing the quake as a turning point. The capture of strategic locations post-quake, often unreported as ceasefire violations by pro-resistance platforms, underscores how this perception of divine favor is translating into battlefield gains.

In a war where morale is as critical as ammunition, the belief that righteousness is on their side has galvanized resistance fighters

Dr. Azeem Ibrahim

However, the resistance’s momentum is not without constraints. China, a key backer of the junta, has exerted significant influence over the conflict’s trajectory. The Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army’s decision this month to hand Lashio back to the junta, under Chinese pressure, highlighted Beijing’s ability to dictate outcomes. China’s growing economic stakes in Myanmar, including the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor, make it wary of prolonged instability.

While the earthquake has temporarily shifted focus to humanitarian aid — China dispatched more than 30 rescue teams and some $13.7 million in relief — Beijing’s long-term strategy remains stabilizing the junta to protect its interests. This external pressure could temper the resistance’s advances, particularly in northern Shan State, where Chinese influence is strongest.

The international response, or lack thereof, further complicates the picture. This geopolitical vacuum has allowed authoritarian powers to bolster the junta’s position through aid, undermining the resistance’s narrative of global support. The UN has criticized the junta for breaching the ceasefire, but its calls for humanitarian access have gone largely unheeded. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations’ attempts at mediation, led by Malaysia’s Anwar Ibrahim, have yielded little beyond temporary pauses in fighting.

For the resistance, the earthquake has been both a tactical opportunity and a psychological catalyst. The junta’s weakened state, coupled with the rebels’ belief in divine endorsement, has injected new vigor into their campaign. However, the path forward is fraught with challenges. The resistance must navigate China’s influence, international indifference and the junta’s relentless airstrikes.

The quake has shifted the ground — literally and figuratively — but its ultimate impact on Myanmar’s civil war remains uncertain. As Richard Horsey, a Myanmar expert, cautioned, the disaster’s effects are “hard to predict.” What is clear is that in a nation where the spiritual and political are intertwined, the earthquake has given the resistance a powerful symbol of hope and righteousness, one they will wield as they continue their fight for freedom.

• Dr. Azeem Ibrahim is the director of special initiatives at the Newlines Institute for Strategy and Policy in Washington, DC. X: @AzeemIbrahim