Saudi Arabia’s real GDP grows 2.7% in Q1: GASTAT 

RIYADH: Stock markets across the Middle East and North Africa began 2025 on a strong note, with the Arab Monetary Fund Composite Index rising 4.37 percent year over year, according to a new report.

On a quarterly basis, the index — which tracks the performance of 16 Arab stock markets— posted a 1.55 percent increase, reflecting investor confidence amid shifting global monetary policy and geopolitical headwinds.

The figures were released as part of the AMF’s quarterly bulletin, which noted that sectors such as banking, real estate, and basic materials, as well as transportation, and financial services performed well, contributing to gains in several markets. 

The strong performance comes amid reforms across Arab markets to deepen liquidity and attract foreign investment. Saudi Arabia’s Capital Market Authority is advancing its 2024-2026 strategy to elevate its global market position and enhance investor safeguards, while Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange recently launched the “New ADX Group”— a market infrastructure overhaul aligned with the emirate’s long-term economic vision. 

In its report, the AMF said: “This performance unfolded amid a tightening global monetary policy environment during the first quarter of 2025, as most central banks, both globally and across the Arab region, adopted a cautious approach to monetary easing following the US Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates steady.”

The fund highlighted that while some Arab exchanges saw notable gains, others experienced declines. 

Casablanca Stock Exchange led the region with a 20.19 percent rise in its index, driven by strong performances in the banking and telecommunications sectors. 

Tunisia and Kuwait followed with increases of 10.25 percent and 9.66 percent, respectively, while Egyptian Exchange and Amman Stock Exchange posted gains of 7.68 percent and 6.12 percent.

However, not all markets fared as well. Saudi Stock Exchange, the largest in the region by market capitalization, saw a slight decline of 0.10 percent, while Abu Dhabi Securities Market and Palestine Exchange recorded drops of 0.53 percent and 0.46 percent, respectively. 

Beirut Stock Exchange faced the steepest decline, plummeting by 12.69 percent, attributed to ongoing economic challenges in Lebanon.

Despite Lebanon’s ongoing economic crisis since 2019, recent data from the Central Administration of Statistics shows signs of easing inflationary pressures. 

The annual inflation rate dropped sharply to 14.2 percent in March, down from 70.36 percent a year earlier — a notable improvement attributed largely to the stabilization of the Lebanese pound, which has held steady at approximately 89,500 Lebanese pounds per US dollar since mid-2023.

Market capitalization and trading activity 

The total market capitalization of Arab stock markets decreased by 1.45 percent in the first quarter of 2025, reaching $4.32 trillion, down by $63.77 billion compared to the last quarter of 2024. 

This decline was primarily due to significant losses in the Abu Dhabi and Saudi markets, which shed $18.23 billion and $75.06 billion, respectively.

In contrast, Casablanca Stock Exchange added $21.26 billion to its market value, while Kuwait Stock Exchange saw an increase of $13.77 billion. 

Trading values also reflected this mixed performance. Total trading value across Arab markets fell by 2.60 percent to $250.53 billion.  

Kuwait Stock Exchange stood out with a 45.09 percent surge in trading value, reaching $21.95 billion. This strong performance builds on 2024’s momentum, when 113 out of 142 listed companies reported profits, as highlighted in an Al-Shall Consulting report.

Meanwhile, Abu Dhabi Securities Market saw a 31 percent drop in trading value.

Sectoral performance and global influences 

Global factors played a significant role in shaping market trends, with sectors scuh as insurance, consumer services, and media faced declines. “The cautious monetary policies of most global and Arab central banks, following the US Federal Reserve’s decision to stabilize interest rates, positively impacted lending and financing stability,” the study stated. 

However, it also warned that “the escalation of US trade policies, including new tariffs, has raised concerns about slowing international trade and rising production costs, which could directly affect global growth expectations, inflation rates, and investor confidence.”

Geopolitical tensions and fluctuations in oil prices further influenced market dynamics. “Oil prices experienced significant volatility during the first quarter of 2025 due to escalating geopolitical tensions and increased production from some countries, impacting markets closely tied to oil and affecting liquidity and the performance of the energy sector,” the AMF explained.

Individual market highlights 

Saudi Stock Exchange, which accounts for 61.13 percent of the total market capitalization of Arab exchanges, saw its value drop to $2.64 trillion. The media and utilities sectors were among the worst performers, declining by 31 percent and 13 percent, respectively.

Despite the recent dip, Saudi Arabia’s capital markets remain a regional powerhouse.

Speaking at February’s Capital Markets Forum in Riyadh, Saudi Exchange CEO Mohammed Al-Rumaih said:  “2024 was a great year for us. We did more than 55 listings; around 45 in the equity market, 13 on the main market, which doubled compared to 2023, and the rest in the parallel market. It put us as No.1 not just in the region, but globally as the fastest-growing exchange in the world.”

Egyptian Exchange rose by 7.68 percent, with trading volumes surging by 27.28 percent, reflecting renewed investor confidence.  

Kuwait Stock Exchange outperformed other Gulf markets, with its index climbing 9.66 percent, supported by robust activity in the banking sector. 

Casablanca Stock Exchange’s 20.19 percent jump was fueled by gains in electricity, mining, and telecom stocks, with firms like Attijariwafa Bank and Maroc Telecom leading the charge.  

Risks and outlook 

The report cautioned that several risks could destabilize Arab and global markets in the coming months.

“Potential risks include trade-related pressures linked to tariffs, a possible global economic slowdown, rising inflation, fluctuations in oil prices, high debt levels in some Arab economies, and geopolitical tensions,” it stated.

Despite the relative stability of Arab exchanges in the inaugural quarter of 2025, these factors could pose challenges to future performance. 

The AMF also emphasized the importance of continued cooperation among Arab markets to enhance integration and support economic growth in the region. 

“The Fund hopes that these efforts will contribute to developing cooperation and integration among Arab financial markets, serving common interests and promoting economic growth in the Arab region,” the analysis concluded.