Ankara, Washington, and Trump’s first 100 days

As Donald Trump marked the first 100 days of his administration in Washington, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said: “I believe my friend Trump and I will bring very different momentum to US-Turkiye relations in the coming days." The two leaders understood each other, he said, particularly on the contentious issue of Syria, and he welcomed Trump’s awareness of Turkiye’s sensitivities.

After Trump declared victory in November, Erdogan was among the first world leaders to publicly congratulate him. His preference was not new: he had expressed support before. Since Trump’s election, the two leaders have held numerous phone calls and their teams have been preparing for their first face-to-face meeting, although no date has been set.

Such a meeting could pave the way for an improvement in Turkish-American relations. Trump’s approach to foreign leaders, often described as unorthodox and at times careless of diplomatic protocol, has led some to question it. However, there are more similarities than differences in how Erdogan and Trump, confident leaders, approach international politics. Both prefer direct contact over bureaucratic or institutional frameworks. Although in the past personal rapport has also brought challenges, it is still the way they operate.

During Trump’s first term, there were moments of strain, but their unique chemistry — a bromance, if you like — prevented ties from fully collapsing, and the two leaders have managed to maintain a fragile stability in their relations. Given their previous experiences, it is now clear that they are focused on developing a collaborative agenda that benefits both. While Ankara remains cautiously optimistic, it is well-prepared for a second Trump term, and the US president’s attitude appears to align with the Turkish ruling elite’s expectations.

One area where Ankara holds high expectations from Washington is Syria. Erdogan’s specific mention of Syria as a point of mutual understanding with Trump is telling. Ankara also expects the US to end cooperation with the Kurdish militias in Syria, who Turkiye considers a national security threat. Moreover, the Turkish ruling elite has expressed frustration over Israeli actions in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria, which it views as a destabilizing factor in the region.

Israel poses a serious security threat not only to a unified Syria but also to Turkiye’s stability and its efforts to reintegrate Syria into the international fold. The Trump administration’s policy on Turkish-Israeli tension in Syria will have an important impact for both the broader region and Syria’s future. Israel, with its strong lobbying presence in the US, has worked to influence Washington’s stance on Turkiye’s role in Syria. However, Trump made his position clear during a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, praising Turkiye’s involvement in Syria and emphasizing his strong relationship with Erdogan.

This suggests that the Trump administration may pressure Israel to respect Turkiye’s security concerns in Syria. It seems clear that Washington acknowledges and seeks to address Turkiye’s concerns, and that it will be committed to a pragmatic foreign policy approach. Both Turkiye and Israel are allies of Washington in the Middle East and as the Trump administration plans to withdraw from Syria, it appears determined to leave behind a region where its allies will not confront each other. Only time will tell whether Ankara’s expectations are met.

Turkiye also supports Trump’s vision for ending the Russia-Ukraine war. Turkiye, alongside Saudi Arabia, has played an important role in enabling dialogue between US and Russian officials. As with Trump, Erdogan has maintained a direct approach with Vladimir Putin, maintaining a delicate balancing act. This personal diplomacy has kept Turkish-Russian relations stable, despite conflicting interests in flashpoints such as Syria, Ukraine, and the Caucasus. Erdogan and Trump, who trust their negotiating skills, are likely to discuss the Ukraine-Russia peace when they finally meet.

As for Europe and NATO, Trump’s approach has actually strengthened Turkiye’s position in the eyes of Europeans. NATO in particular values Turkiye’s military strength and growing defense industry, especially in securing the southern flank of the alliance. Ankara seems to be leveraging this moment to improve relations with both the EU and the alliance. Additionally, Turkiye aims to gain European support for its concerns in the eastern Mediterranean, where its regional interests are often at odds with those of European and regional states.

With three years and nine months ahead, it is too early to make predictions about the future of Turkish-American relations. While Turkiye has realistic expectations of the Trump administration, it cannot predict the exact policy preferences of Trump and his Cabinet on geopolitical issues, especially given the shifting dynamics in the region. Gaza and Iran remain hot topics. Equally important will be how the two leaders navigate the structural issues that mark US-Turkiye relations. So all eyes are now fixed on a possible Trump-Erdogan meeting, which will set the tone for the next phase.

• Dr. Sinem Cengiz is a Turkish political analyst who specializes in Turkiye’s relations with the Middle East. X: @SinemCngz