Will a weakened Hezbollah in Lebanon disarm?

BEIRUT: Israel’s latest airstrike on what it called a Hezbollah missile storage facility in Beirut’s southern suburbs came during increasing pressure for the Lebanese militant group to disarm.
The disarmament of what has been the region’s most powerful non-state armed group has come to look increasingly inevitable. Hezbollah is severely weakened after a war with Israel in which much of its top leadership was killed, and after losing a key ally with the fall of former Syrian President Bashar Assad, a conduit for Iran to send arms.
Israel and the US are pushing for swift disarmament, but when and how it will happen — if it does — is contested.
Lebanon’s President Joseph Aoun has said he is committed to bringing all arms in the country under state control, but that it will happen through discussions around a national security plan and not through force.
Many fear that an attempt to force the issue would lead to civil conflict, which Aoun has called a “red line.”
Hezbollah officials have said in principle that they are willing to discuss the group’s arsenal, but leader Naim Qassem said in a speech earlier this month that any serious discussions are contingent on Israel withdrawing its forces from territory they occupy in southern Lebanon and halting near-daily airstrikes.
“The Lebanese have to strike a delicate balance” on disarmament, said Aram Nerguizian, a senior associate with the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
“Go too slow ... and you will lose internal momentum and international legitimacy. Go too fast and you get accused by a still-hurting and battered Shia community” — who make up most of Hezbollah’s constituency — “of acting as a proxy for Israel, while risking Hezbollah remnants ... waging an insurgency against the Lebanese government.”
What would disarmament look like?
After Lebanon’s 15-year civil war ended in 1990, the country went through a process of disarming most of the militias that had taken part. Hezbollah was the exception, given special status as a “resistance force” fighting against Israel’s occupation of southern Lebanon at the time.
Aoun has outlined his vision of a similar disarmament process. Former Hezbollah fighters could apply to join the Lebanese army as individuals, the president said. Weapons deemed “usable” by the army would become part of its arsenal, while those deemed “unusable” would be destroyed.
Nerguizian said that more than 90 percent of Hezbollah’s “sophisticated and heavy weapons” — which once included tens of thousands of missiles and drones — are believed to have been destroyed already, the vast majority of them by Israel.
What remains, he said, would not be compatible with the Lebanese army’s arsenal, which is largely Western-supplied, while Hezbollah uses Iranian, Russian and Chinese-made weapons.
Nerguizian said it is unlikely that large numbers of Hezbollah’s tens of thousands of fighters would be incorporated into the army because their ideology has not been compatible as a paramilitary force that has largely been “tied to the preferences of Iran.”
Retired Lebanese army Gen. Hassan Jouni agreed that much of Hezbollah’s arsenal would not be easily integrated but said the post-civil war era provides a precedent for integrating fighters.
After going through training, “they become like any other soldier,” he said. While there might be a “religious and ideological obstacle” for some Hezbollah fighters, “I do not think this is the case for everyone.”
Ibrahim Mousawi, a member of Hezbollah’s parliamentary bloc, told The Associated Press that “everything is open for discussion.”
“We don’t want to jump into discussing the details,” he said. “This is something that is being left in the hands of the president and the Hezbollah leadership to deal with.”
Mousawi said the destruction of Hezbollah’s arsenal “shouldn’t be acceptable to Lebanon.”
The cash-strapped Lebanese army has struggled to maintain its aging arsenal. In recent years, it has turned to the US and Qatar to help pay soldiers’ salaries.
“We are part of the Lebanese strength,” Mousawi said. ”If the Americans are really keen to show us that they really respect Lebanon and they care for the Lebanese, ... why don’t they equip the Lebanese army with defensive weapons?”
When might disarming occur?
US envoy Morgan Ortagus said earlier this month in an interview broadcast on Lebanese channel LBCI that Hezbollah should be disarmed “as soon as possible.”
A Lebanese diplomat said there is ongoing pressure from the Americans on that front. He spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak publicly.
Hezbollah’s stance that it will not discuss giving up its armed wing before Israel withdraws from five key border points in southern Lebanon appears likely to drag out the process. Israeli officials have said that they plan to remain there indefinitely to secure their border and guard against any ceasefire violations by Hezbollah.
Israeli officials did not respond to a request for comment on the issue of Lebanon’s army integrating former Hezbollah weapons and fighters.
Lebanese officials say that the Israeli presence violates the ceasefire agreement in November, under which Israel and Hezbollah were supposed to withdraw their forces from southern Lebanon, with the Lebanese army taking control alongside UN peacekeepers.
The Lebanese diplomat said that US officials had acknowledged that Israeli forces remaining in the five border points constituted an “occupation” but had not put strong pressure on Israel to withdraw quickly.
A “smart way to break the deadlock” and avoid further escalation is for Washington to increase its support for the Lebanese army and push Israel to withdraw, said Bilal Saab, a former Pentagon official and senior managing director of the Washington-based TRENDS US consulting firm.
Retired Lebanese army Gen. Elias Hanna said he believes that Hezbollah is “still in the phase of denial” regarding the diminution of its military and political clout.
He said disarmament needs to take place as part of broader discussions about Lebanon’s military doctrine and strategy. The Lebanese army could benefit from the experience of Hezbollah, which for many years maintained deterrence with Israel before the latest war, he said.
Saab said he believes the outcome is not in doubt.
“Hezbollah has a choice,” he said. “Either lay down its arms or have them removed by Israeli force.”