Five years to 2030: Saudi Arabia’s grand bet is paying off

When Saudi Arabia first announced Vision 2030 in 2016, many around the world underestimated the scale, seriousness and speed of what was to come. Today, with just five years remaining, it is increasingly clear that this transformation is not only real — it is unprecedented on a global scale.

The story of Vision 2030 is not just about Saudi Arabia, it is about what is possible when long-term thinking meets bold leadership and relentless execution. In a world struggling with short political cycles and risk aversion, the Kingdom has managed to unlock a model of state-led transformation that is agile, ambitious and unapologetically future-focused.

The economic numbers alone tell a compelling story. Non-oil gross domestic product growth has surged, foreign direct investment is on the rise despite global headwinds and a vibrant private sector is emerging in industries that barely existed in the country a decade ago — tourism, entertainment, sports, digital technology, culture and clean energy among them. The Public Investment Fund, once a relatively unknown sovereign vehicle, is now one of the most dynamic capital allocators on the planet, driving bold bets on megaprojects and strategic sectors both at home and abroad.

But the true transformation cannot be captured by macroeconomic indicators alone. What we are witnessing is a shift in mindset and identity. A country that once had limited entertainment options now hosts some of the world’s most talked-about events. Cities like Riyadh and Jeddah have become canvases of urban innovation, with spaces that blend tradition and modernity, offering lifestyles that rival global capitals. Millions of young Saudis are now growing up in a nation that feels dynamic, open and full of opportunity — something their parents could not have imagined at the start of the century.

The Kingdom has managed to unlock a model of state-led transformation that is agile, ambitious and unapologetically future-focused

Yasar Jarrar

Social change has been equally dramatic. Women’s participation in the workforce has doubled. Entrepreneurship is booming, fueled by visionary government policies and a growing culture of creativity. And perhaps most importantly, the Kingdom’s youth — the majority of the population — are now at the center of national development, not on the margins. Their energy is visible in every sector and every corner of the country.

Technological transformation has also been relentless. From artificial intelligence and robotics to e-government and smart cities, Saudi Arabia is not just adopting global best practices, it is seeking to define the frontier. The vision of a post-oil, knowledge-powered economy is no longer theoretical — it is in motion. Projects like NEOM, once seen as outlandish, are becoming living laboratories of innovation that are drawing global talent, capital and attention.

None of this is happening in a vacuum. The geopolitical weight of the Kingdom has grown in parallel. A more connected, globally engaged and diplomatically active Saudi Arabia is taking shape, with soft power built not just on energy resources but on cultural capital, investment diplomacy and a new narrative of purpose.

It would be professionally irresponsible to overlook the magnitude of what has been achieved in less than a decade

Yasar Jarrar

Yes, challenges remain. Transformation at this scale is never linear. And while there is much work to be done around institutional capacity, policy coordination and ensuring that reforms are inclusive and enduring, it would be professionally irresponsible to overlook the magnitude of what has been achieved in less than a decade.

The global development community often debates what the future of statecraft and nation-building should look like in the 21st century. In that debate, Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 increasingly stands out as a case study worth close examination. It demonstrates how a country can design its own model of progress — rooted in its history, shaped by its geography and driven by its people.

Five years from now, when the curtain closes on the first chapter of Vision 2030, we may look back and realize we were witnessing one of the most ambitious — and successful — national transformations of our time.

• Yasar Jarrar is a Managing Partner at Gov Campus and Professor at Hult International Business School.