Israel’s war on Gaza poised for dangerous new phase

Since Israel suddenly and unilaterally ended the ceasefire with Hamas in Gaza on March 18, more than 1,000 Palestinians have been killed there — and this tragic figure is constantly rising. Schools and medical centers have also not been spared by the bombardments and, as a consequence, the familiar scenes of displaced Palestinians, most of whom have already been displaced multiple times, have also returned.

Israel’s decision to go back to war, and with such intensity, raises the questions: why now and for what purpose? The answer to both has more to do with Israel’s domestic politics and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s unrelenting quest for survival in power than his country’s security or strategic interests.

From the outset of the ceasefire deal back in January, which was largely due to the encouragement of then-US President-elect Donald Trump, there were deep concerns that the three-phase agreement would not last beyond the first phase unless the mediators continued to pressurize the two sides. In Israel’s case, it was mainly Washington that could do the persuading.

Despite some setbacks and hiccups during the six weeks of the first phase, both sides fulfilled their main commitments, even if they did not always act in the spirit of defusing tensions and building trust. The fighting stopped, which saved many lives, humanitarian aid was allowed into Gaza, 33 of the Israeli and foreign hostages held in Gaza returned home in exchange for the release of nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners detained in Israeli jails, and many of the displaced in Gaza returned to what survived of their homes in the north of the Strip.

On the Israeli side, there has never been a genuine yearning to end the war. In fact, the exact opposite is the case

Yossi Mekelberg

A successful conclusion of the first phase could not guarantee moving on to the second one, or even starting serious negotiations over it, without which the release of the remaining 59 hostages still in Gaza could not be guaranteed and the resumption of hostilities was just a matter of time.

On the Israeli side, there has never been a genuine yearning to end the war. In fact, the exact opposite is the case. Its government set as its top priority the complete elimination of Hamas before it would agree to end the war. And the fact that this Islamist Palestinian movement is still playing a part in Palestinian society and politics clearly demonstrates that this aim — set by the Israeli government after the deadly attack of Oct. 7, 2023 — is unrealistic. Moreover, should the remaining hostages be released by an agreement, this would also contradict the government’s claim that only military pressure could achieve such a result.

Hamas might well want an end to the war, but it also knows that this would not stop Israel from going after those who were involved in the Oct. 7 attack, and this time Hamas would lack the advantage of holding hostages. There are also signs of growing anger among Palestinians who consider the group to be as responsible as Israel for the current suffering. So, this might be the moment for Palestinian society to hold it to account, as is also the case with Israeli society with regard to its own government.

For a short while, the ceasefire held, despite the completion of the first phase without agreement on the second. Nevertheless, the fragility of the country’s domestic politics, together with Washington’s objectionable idea of emptying the Gaza Strip of its Palestinian residents, has emboldened the far right in Israel, including those in the governing coalition. They pressured Netanyahu to go back to war so they could realize their war crime fantasy of permanently occupying a Gaza without Palestinians and building Jewish settlements there. Meanwhile, Netanyahu’s cynicism in abusing his position to remain in power indefinitely reaches a new low with every passing week, as does his recklessness regarding human lives, whether Palestinian or Israeli.

Resuming the war has been a lifeline for the stability of Netanyahu’s governing coalition. When he initially agreed to the ceasefire deal, the religious ultranationalist faction in government, led by Itamar Ben-Gvir and the Otzma Yehudit party, left the government, leaving it with a razor-thin majority in the Knesset. Meanwhile, the religious ultranationalist party of Bezalel Smotrich, Religious Zionism, put Netanyahu on notice, only agreeing to stay in government on condition that the second phase never materializes.

The fragility of the country’s domestic politics has emboldened the far right in Israel, including those in the governing coalition

Yossi Mekelberg

By resuming the bombardment of Gaza, Netanyahu was immediately rewarded by the return of Otzma Yehudit to the government, while Religious Zionism’s threat was not tested. The great tragedy, of course, is that keeping Netanyahu in power and pulling all possible tricks to make a mockery of his corruption trial and of the rule of law generally resulted, in the first night of Israel’s return to war, in more than 400 Palestinians killed. The numbers have kept rising since, with a reported 322 children now killed.

If, by now, we are no longer shocked by Netanyahu and his coalition of right wingers’ complete disregard for Palestinian lives, most Israelis cannot get their head around his utter indifference to the lives of his own people, and in this case the hostages too. Netanyahu and his political partners are insulting the intelligence of the Israeli public and everyone else by claiming that military pressure will bring back the hostages.

If you want the truth, all you need to do is listen to Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz, who stated last week that Tel Aviv was looking for a major expansion of the military operation in Gaza in order to seize large areas of land that would be “incorporated into Israel’s security zones.” In his statement, Katz said the operation would also involve a “large-scale evacuation of Gaza’s population from combat zones.”

Unless there is an intervention, first and foremost by Washington, there is a real risk that the war in Gaza will enter a new phase in which Israel makes the lives of the residents there utterly impossible, believing that it can achieve the twin objectives of victory over Hamas and the expulsion of Palestinians. However, the most likely outcome of such an approach is a never-ending and costly war.

• Yossi Mekelberg is a professor of international relations and an associate fellow of the MENA Program at Chatham House X: @YMekelberg