Major geopolitical trends the region needs to keep an eye on in 2023

Any attempt by political commentators to predict likely events and developments in the year ahead must proceed from consideration of how 2022 ended. Last year marked the beginning of at least four important geopolitical trends that will surely continue throughout this year — and perhaps for several years to come.

These trends are: The war between Russia and Ukraine; the turmoil sweeping Iran as a result of the ongoing protests that have spread across the whole country; the unstable situation in Iraq; and the problems the Taliban are experiencing governing Afghanistan.

Of course, any analyst can list many political factors that potentially can have geopolitical impacts. For our purposes it is better, therefore, to maintain a strategic focus and consider the geopolitical changes that could have strategic effects on the Islamic world, the Middle East, and the Gulf region.

The war between Russia and Ukraine will continue. Russian President Vladimir Putin might demand a declaration from Ukraine that it will not support any action likely to harm the national security of the Russian Federation. This will not be easy for the Ukrainian government to agree to, and the administration of US President Joe Biden could be reluctant to endorse a Russian ceasefire proposal based on conditions set by Moscow. But many countries in the Middle East will suffer as long as the conflict continues.

The prices of commodities that are usually primarily imported from Ukraine and Russia will remain high as other countries step in to make up shortfalls caused by the conflict. It is important for countries in the Middle East to keep an eye on attitudes in Europe and whether countries there will break ranks from the US on how to end the war.

These trends are: The war between Russia and Ukraine; the turmoil sweeping Iran as a result of the ongoing protests that have spread across the whole country; the unstable situation in Iraq; and the problems the Taliban are experiencing governing Afghanistan.

Since European economies are expected to face an economic recession in 2023, there will be increased opportunities for Arab countries to export goods and services to them, taking into consideration that the cost will be cheaper than the global market price. This will be one way in which Arab countries can potentially earn hard currency, which could lower the value of the US dollar against local currencies in many Arab nations, especially Egypt, Lebanon and Iraq.

The second major geopolitical development in the year ahead will be the deteriorating situation in Iran. The number and the scale of the protests will most likely increase. This will be present a problem for the Biden administration, which still wants to sign a new agreement with Iran over its nuclear program.

Meanwhile, in its ongoing attempts to crack down on the protests, the regime in Tehran will continue to respond brutally and impose very harsh penalties on protesters. Biden will therefore come under pressure from many sources to punish authorities in Iran for their savage response to political dissent. So far, it is not clear how his administration will deal with Iran.

The third challenge is the situation in Iraq, where there are two dimensions to the current crisis: The consolidation of the sectarian blocs that are deepening the divisions within the country, and the protests against corruption and the increasingly difficult living conditions.

No prime minister of Iraq will have the full power required to implement the reforms needed to change the situation for the better in the country. As a result, Iran might act to create more problems inside Iraq.

The US is still responsible for the security of Iraq. This could mean increased US military involvement, which might take the form of helping Iraqi internal security forces deal with the demonstrations calling for change for the better in Iraq.

The irony is that this year marks the 20th anniversary of the start of “Operation Iraqi Freedom.” Yet the US is still involved in the country and it remains a proxy arena for Washington and Tehran.

The other main challenge is Afghanistan, which is ungovernable; the Taliban are not able to control the country. This will invite intervention by other countries. China, Russia and Pakistan could reach a strategic consensus for greater involvement of Pakistan in Afghanistan, in an effort to improve order in the country.

Iran will also attempt to exert control in Afghanistan but it might prefer not to confront those three nations in the poor country. Pakistan might therefore succeed in restoring law and order to Afghanistan.

In a wider, global context, there could be changes in world politics in several regions, some positive, some negative. There could be some unexpected developments, as well. For example, with a presidential election two years away, no one knows exactly how healthy President Biden is, or what the future holds for former President Donald Trump.

But one of the most important aspects of political developments in the year ahead will be the ability of other countries to make changes in world politics, free of American meddling or influence.

• Faisal Al-Shammeri is a political analyst. Twitter: @Mr_Alshammeri