Pakistan’s UN envoy says India’s suspension of water treaty ‘illegal,’ poses ‘existential threat’

KARACHI: Pakistan’s renewed tensions with archrival India have weighed heavily on the country’s stock market, with key sectors like refineries posting losses of up to 15 percent since a gun attack killed 26 tourists in the disputed Kashmir region on April 22, according to analysts and market data on Friday.
India blamed Pakistan for the attack despite Islamabad’s denial and call for a neutral probe. The escalation, which has seen border closures, tit-for-tat diplomatic expulsions and fears of military confrontation between the nuclear-armed neighbors, has drawn international concern.
The KSE-100 Index, Pakistan’s benchmark stock gauge, fell 6 percent over six trading sessions following the attack, according to Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) data.
The market recovered some losses on Friday but remained volatile heading into next week.
“Pakistan’s stock market experienced heightened volatility after the Pahalgam attack,” Sana Tawfik, an economist and head of research at Arif Habib Ltd., told Arab News while referring to the attack in Indian-administered Kashmir.
Between April 22 and April 30, the index dropped 7,104 points or 6 percent, she said.
Key sectors bore the brunt of the sell-off, including refineries (-15.4 percent), transport (-15 percent), pharmaceuticals (-12.9 percent), jute (-11.6 percent) and engineering (-9.2 percent).
“This decline reflects broad investor risk aversion amid geopolitical uncertainty,” she added.
The latest flare-up with India added to pressure on Pakistani equities, which had already been hit by US President Donald Trump’s tariff increases last month. That triggered panic selling and a one-hour trading halt at the PSX.
“Foreigners remained net sellers [in April] as well, taking 10MFY25 net outflow to around $252 million,” JS Global Capital Ltd., the largest broking and investment banking firm in Pakistan, said in a note to clients.
Muhammad Waqas Ghani, its head of research, said investor caution over Pakistan’s escalating tensions with India had driven the recent market volatility.
“The impact of geopolitical concerns is beginning to wear off,” he said.
On Friday, the KSE-100 rebounded 2.5 percent to 114,113 points, trimming overall losses to 3.6 percent. Ghani attributed the recovery to US diplomatic efforts to defuse tensions between the two neighbors.
“The market opened positive today [Friday], gaining 2,900 points or 2.6 percent in the first half,” he said.
Analysts said calls for restraint from the US, United Nations and other members of the International community contributed to Friday’s rally.
US Vice President JD Vance told Fox News in a podcast interview that Washington was working to prevent further escalation and preserve regional peace.
Mohammed Sohail, CEO at Topline Securities Ltd., said stocks bounced back as investors regained confidence amid “signals of easing tensions.”
JS Global said market sentiment could improve further after the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) expected release of funds for Pakistan following its upcoming executive board meeting this month.
“Materialization of planned foreign inflows, likely after IMF disbursement, along with geopolitical stability, remains crucial for the country and equity markets,” it added.

KARACHI: Pakistan’s finance chief said on Friday the country’s tax-to-GDP ratio was expected to reach 10.6% by the end of the current fiscal year, according to an official statement, as the government works to build on economic progress made under recent International Monetary Fund (IMF) loan programs.
Pakistan’s tax-to-GDP ratio, one of the lowest in the region, stood at around 8.8% in fiscal year 2023-24. Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb has repeatedly warned that such low levels of revenue mobilization are unsustainable and pose long-term risks to fiscal stability.
Aurangzeb shared the projection while briefing representatives of Standard & Poor’s Global Ratings as part of Pakistan’s ongoing sovereign ratings review.
“The Finance Minister presented a detailed overview of the government’s macroeconomic reform agenda and reaffirmed Pakistan’s commitment to achieving sustainable and inclusive economic growth by enhancing productivity and promoting exports,” the finance ministry said in a statement after the meeting.
He said Pakistan’s external portfolio was well-managed, with foreign exchange reserves projected to reach $14 billion by the end of June.
“He further stated that the tax-to-GDP ratio was expected to reach 10.6 percent by the end of June, which would mark progress toward the government’s target of raising it to 13 percent by the conclusion of the 37-month Extended Fund Facility (EFF) with the International Monetary Fund (IMF),” the statement said.
Pakistan has taken several steps to improve revenue collection, including the automation of processes at the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR), the operationalization of the National Tax Council and the imposition of agricultural income tax.
It has also separated the Tax Policy Office from the FBR to better align tax policymaking with broader economic goals.
Aurangzeb also highlighted recent surpluses in both the primary balance and the current account, along with falling inflation and current account deficit figures, which he said were contributing to improved economic fundamentals.
During last month’s IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington, the Pakistani finance chief held over 70 engagements with rating agencies, development finance institutions, investors and think tanks.
The government also maintains the international community broadly supports Pakistan’s reform agenda, as it tries to maintain its overall economic momentum.